USDA report released today at noon.
Jacob Willemse has provided some commentary on it after reviewing the market notes:
The USDA released their monthly supply and demand report today. Similar to February’s report, they opted to keep the majority of their estimates unchanged.
Corn ending stocks were left completely unchanged this time around at 1.502 billion bushels, while trade was looking for a slight reduction. The main surprise here is the continued conservative estimates for corn exports. Last week exports were reported at 89.5% booked, with 42% already shipped. While we are very close to meeting and exceeding projected exports, the current pace has slowed considerably in the past few weeks, and the lack of shipments raises some concerns over cancellation. Corn prices took a hit upon the release of the report but rebounded by the end of the day to end right about where they started.
Soybeans carried the same story as corn with ending stocks unchanged while trade was looking for a reduction. Exports continue to be way ahead of schedule for soybeans, with 98.2% booked and 75% shipped. It is a lot harder to see the argument for keeping soybean exports this low. The amount of completed shipments greatly reduces the risk of cancellation, and even with export sales slowing it won’t be long before exports could beat the USDA’s estimate. Similar to corn, soybean prices dropped upon the release of the report, and rebounded by the end of the day.
On the wheat side, ending stocks also remained unchanged. Although there was worry over winterkill in the plains after the cold snap in February, most of the concern has since been alleviated.
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