USDA Report January 12th, 2021

USDA Summary January 12th, 2021

The USDA released their monthly supply and demand estimates, quarterly grain stocks estimates, and wheat acreage estimates today. A few surprises in these numbers led to an exciting end to the marketing day.

 

Corn ending stocks came in at 1.552 billion bushels, down from last months estimate of 1.702 billion bushels and over 40 million bushels lower than the average trade estimate. This drop is mostly accounted for in a surprise 3.8 bu/ac reduction in average yield. To add to the bullish news, quarterly grain stocks were estimated at 11.321 billion bushels, over 600 million bushels lower than trader’s average estimate. The markets responded very positively to this report. After entering the midday 3 cents above open, it ended the day up its limit of 25 cents!

 

Moving forward, attention will be turned back to South American weather patterns as they approach their harvest. Over the past few months, a series of dry spells has raised concern over their corn and soybean crops. Argentina had even briefly put a ban on all corn exports to secure domestic supply. They later removed the ban and put a 30,000 metric-ton/day cap in place instead. Early crop quality reports have not been promising, but forecasts have looked better recently; we will have to wait and see.

 

Soybean ending stocks were estimated at 140 million bushels, 35 million less than last month and right on trader’s estimate. A slight reduction in average yield, and a slight increase in domestic crush and exports accounted for this change. We currently have over 90% of forecasted exports booked, and 65% shipped; an increase in exports was more than warranted. Quarterly stocks came in just over trade’s estimate at 2.92 billion bushels. Soybean prices entered the midday 14 cents above open and ended 45 cents up.

 

Like corn, South American weather will be the focus for beans in the coming weeks. Right now, the concern is that lackluster Brazilian and Argentine production will drive more sales to the US. With ending stocks creeping lower every month, additional sales could seriously jeopardize domestic supply. After a few recent sales made to China, and initial yield reports in Brazil coming in on the lower side, this concern is certainly a possibility. That being said, forecasts have begun to look better. If things start to turn around, we could see a huge drop in price in the blink of an eye. Again, we will have to wait and see what happens; proceed with caution.

 

Wheat ending stocks were reported at 839 million bushels, down from last month’s 862 million and below trader’s estimate of 859 million. Quarterly stocks came in at 1.673 billion, and planted acres at 32 million. Wheat prices followed corn and beans today, entering the midday 16 cents above open before closing 30 cents higher.

 

Compared to corn and soybeans, wheat prices have had a much bumpier ride in the past few weeks. News that Russia may be increasing their wheat export duty from 30 euros/MT to 50 euros/MT combined with today’s bullish reports gave certainly gave wheat a nice boost.

Sourced from MID-CO COMMODITIES INC. market commentaries.

USDA Jan12 2021

Dec 10 USDA Report

Posted by Jacob Willemse

USDA Summary December 10th, 2020

The USDA released their monthly supply and demand report today. While they didn’t update any of their production estimates, they did make some small adjustments on the demand side.

Corn ending stocks were unchanged from last months report at 1.702 billion bushels. Trade estimates ranged from 1.550 – 1.775 billion bushels, averaging out at 1.691. While no one was expecting a large decrease, seeing ending stocks unchanged is a disappointment. Corn was up 3 cents prior to the release of the report and ended today 1 cent below open.

Corn prices have been turbulent over the past two weeks. With covid cases on the rise, the main fear is that another round of wide-spread lockdowns could reduce ethanol usage of corn. So far only a few areas have actually locked down, and with the release of several covid vaccines hopefully it will stay that way. Right now its uncertain which way things will go.

Soybean ending stocks came in 15 million bushels lower than last month at 175 million bushels. Trade estimates ranged from 120 – 190 million bushels and averaged out at 168. This reduction is represented by an increase in domestic crush usage from last repot. While the reduction in ending stocks was welcome, they didn’t drop enough to meet trader’s expectations. Prior to the report’s release soybean prices were up 15 cents, but by the end of the day they were down 4 cents.

Soybeans have seen a good amount of pressure lately. Exports have slowed significantly in the past few weeks. Rumors have been circulating that China is looking to book a few more cargos, but so far we haven’t seen any confirmation. In addition, South American growing areas have seen some much-needed rainfall. With today’s report showing higher than expected ending stocks, there isn’t a lot of supporting bean prices. Trade will watch for rain in South America going forward, as even with recent rains their crop isn’t made yet.

Wheat ending stocks came in at 862 million bushels, 15 million lower than last month’s report and 12 million below the average trade estimate. Some good news to end off today’s report, as wheat prices closed 13 cents above open.

Sourced from MID-CO COMMODITIES INC. market commentaries.

USDA Dec10 2020

USDA WASDE Report November 10th, 2020

The USDA updated their estimates for grain production, demand, and ending stocks today. The report came with some major changes, and many surprises to the markets

Corn ending stocks saw a 465-million-bushel reduction, from October’s estimate of 2.167 billion bushels down to 1.702 billion bushels. This reduction came from a drop in average yield, a drop in total production, and a 325-million-bushel increase in projected exports.

Trade analysts were expecting a decrease in ending stocks, but their guess ended up being over 300 million bushels too high at 2.033 billion bushels. With such a major shock, the markets rallied soon after the report was released. Before the report corn was sitting around 3 cents higher than open, and by market close it was 15.5 cents up. Pfizer’s COVID-19 vaccine also adds to the hope that ethanol demand for corn will make a recovery into next year.

Bean ending stocks ended up seeing a 100-million-bushel decrease, from 290 million bushels in October down to 190 million. The reduction was almost entirely caused by the supply side, as average yield was reduced by 1.2 bpa which corresponded to just under a 100 million bushels drop in total production.

Exports were unchanged at 2.2 billion bushels. We currently have 81% of that estimate on the books with 10 months left to book the rest. It’s possible bean exports are underestimated; we will have to watch closely in the coming months to see if this is the case.

Similar to corn, the bean prices saw a good rally after the release of the report as trade overestimated ending stocks. While midday beans prices were up 8 cents over opening price, by the end of the day they were up 33 cents. According the recent reports Brazil is out of beans until their harvest early next year, meaning the US is the only major supplier for the world. This combined with dwindling US stocks has certainly helped support the price of beans.

Wheat ending stocks also saw a reduction, although not to the scale of beans or corn with only a 6-million-bushel drop. This helped wheat prices gain a few extra cents, as it closed 10.5 cents higher than the open.

Below you will find a summary of the numbers.

With files from Mid-co and Saputo.

USDA Nov10 2020 (002)

Agriculture Innovation Lead

Are you looking for a hands-on career opportunity supporting local farms and farm families in your community to expand their participation in the Agri-Food Value Chain?

Haggerty Creek Ltd. has an opportunity for a motivated agriculture innovation lead to join our team in Bothwell. As the agriculture innovation lead, you will have the opportunity to develop and demonstrate your capability to deliver agriculture innovation and services in our communities to enhance our farm owner profitability. We strive to be there for our customers when others are not, and that there is always a solution to our customers’ needs.

Agriculture Innovation Lead – Haggerty Creek Ltd_

2020 Corn Plot Results

Decided to take the corn plot off yesterday.  It was planted on May 27th.  For fertility, we used SmartN upfront plus 250lbs of corn starter.

All of the varieties were standing perfectly.  It was interesting to see the slight changes in final population.

In general terms, the flagship Pride and Dekalb varieties had final stands of 34-35,000, which is basically what we dropped.

2 of the NK varieties, along with the experimental Pride had noticeably lower final population (still 32,000+) but the fact that I could see it made me wonder why that would occur.  Dekalb 52-84 also had lower population, but that was something I expected.  Althougth it is has been an excellent performer for other areas, we have never had good luck with that variety in the area immediately around Haggerty.

That being said, the lower populations did not affect the yield as much as I would have thought.

The frost event in September has definitely taken the shine off the test weight, although I was pleasantly surprised that most were grade 3, and as such I think they will finish at 2 once dried.

Raccoons ate their share of several varieties.  Of interest, similar to what we have found in the past, they really liked NK 9738 (along with the other NK varieties).  Maybe this is why NK corn is liked by livestock producers?  Makes you wonder why one would be tastier to the wildlife than others.

They also really liked Pride experimental XP20101G5 as well.

Thanks to Ryan Snobelen from Pride Seeds for assisting and to Dekalb for the weigh wagon.

127196 Harvest Report

USDA Ending Stocks Update, October 9th, 2020

The USDA updated their supply and demand estimates today. All good news but no major surprises to the markets.

Corn ending stocks were adjusted, lowered from 2.503 billion bushels to 2.167 billion bushels. The primary factor driving for this was a rather massive reduction in beginning stocks from two weeks ago.  While bullish, the markets already had a premium built into the price to reflect this news.  Average yield and harvested acres also saw slight reductions.

The general consensus is that corn has been carried by momentum in beans and wheat over the past few weeks. Moving forward, we will likely need some fresh good news to maintain the upward trend.

Bean ending stocks were dropped from 460 million bushels to 290 million bushels. Similar to corn, the primary factor behind this was the reduction in beginning stocks. Aside from this, the USDA increased their export estimate by 75 million bushels.  Average yield was unchanged at 51.9, and harvested acres saw only a slight reduction from 83 million to 82.3 million.

The recent bean rally has been fueled by a few factors. A lack of rain in South America has delayed their planting season up to this point. If their bean crop is reduced enough, this could trigger China to start buying US crop again.  Related to this, there is additional speculation that China will start another string of buying as they exit their weeklong holiday. A few sales to China this week seem to support these rumors.  The current forecasts for Brazil have rain coming to the northern and central regions this coming week.  It’s hard to say how much this will impact the markets, only time will tell.

Wheat ending stocks also saw a reduction from 925 million to 833 million bushels. The primary factor behind this was reduction in beginning stocks, same as beans and corn.

Wheat prices have found support in dry weather in Russia, which has hindered their potential production.

Overall, the markets did a good job in their predictions prior to the report. Corn went into the report 5 cents higher and ended the day 8 cents higher. Beans saw no change, as they went into the report 15 cents above opening and ended 15 cents above opening. Only wheat saw a major shock, as they went from up 7 cents to down 1 cent after the report was released. In the end, the biggest surprise was that there wasn’t any surprise.

See the summary chart, attached:

USDA Oct 9 2020

 

Field Corn Contest 2020, Haggerty Creek Ltd.

In lieu of the fact that fall fairs have been cancelled this year, we thought that kids should still get the chance to participate in some way with fall harvest contests.

Our kids have always enjoyed entering the “corn contests” at both the Glencoe Fair and Brooke-Alvinston fair.

So – we thought why not run a contest of our own this year.

The rules are simple:  Children under the age of 14, and 1 entry per child per category.

Drop off your entries at Haggerty Creek Ltd before 6pm on October 8th. Call when you get to the office. We will give you a form to complete with a “hidden” name on it, and instructions on where to leave it safely.

If you wish to get your entries back, you may indicate this on the form.

The contest:  Highest number of kernel’s on a single cob, and/or a presentation of 6 cobs of corn.

In each category, the grand prize winner will receive $25.00, the 2nd place $15.00, and $10.00 for 3rd.

Good luck!

HC Field Corn Contest 2020 Corn Contest Entry Form (002)

USDA Quarterly Stocks Report Sept 30 2020

The USDA Quarterly Grain Stocks report was released today at 12:00, and it brought some major surprises to the market.
Stocks were lowered across the board, coming in underneath average trade estimates by a significant margin. Corn stocks were reported at 1.995 billion bushels; 255 million bushels below the average trade estimate of 2.225 billion bushels. Bean stocks were reported at 523 million bushels; 53 million bushels under average trade estimates of 576 million. Wheat stocks came in at 2.159 billion bushels, which was 83 million below average trade estimates of 2.242 billion.
The markets were obviously surprised by these numbers, as we saw massive rallies immediately following the release of the report. At one point we saw a 40 cent increase above today’s opening price for beans. By the end of the day corn closed 14 cents higher, beans closed 30 cents higher, and wheat closed 27 cents higher.

See attached for the summary numbers

Quarterly Grain Stocks Report Sep30 2020

USDA Report Sept 11th, 2020

USDA September 11th, 2020 Recap

 Last week the USDA updated their estimates.

Traders did a good job with their estimates, and as such there weren’t many surprises to the markets.

Corn ending stocks for 20/21 dropped around 250,000 MT. The largest contributing factor to this was storm damage in Iowa, which represented a loss of over 500,000 harvested acres of corn. Yields were also reduced from 181.8 bu/ac to 178.5 bu/ac. Despite such a large drop, this still represents a record high for corn ending stocks.

This falls right in line with what was expected by the market. With few surprises coming from the USDA report, attention has begun to shift towards harvest activity.

Soybeans ending stocks for 20/21 dropped by 150,000 MT. Droughts across Illinois and Iowa hit at a crucial time, damaging their crop and lowering yields. In combination with this, China has been a strong and steady buyer of U.S. beans over the past month. This helps to explain the rallies we have seen in the price of soybeans over the past month.

It is debatable whether current Chinese buying is meant to meet domestic need, or stockpile in case trade relations deteriorate between China and the U.S. While there are reports of floods and typhoons damaging China’s domestic crop, current President Donald Trump has also been explicit in his desire for less trade with China. Both explanations are entirely possible.

Wheat ending stocks have remained unchanged. There seems not to be enough recent news to change things either way.

Most of this information was already priced into the markets. Directly after the report, corn prices stayed flat, while beans saw an additional rally, likely reflecting the difference between trader’s estimate and USDA estimate of ending stocks.

A summary of the numbers is below:

USDA 2020-21 U.S. corn and soybean production

USDA Sep.

2020-21

Estimate

Average of

Analysts’

Estimates

USDA Aug.

2020-21

Estimate

Range of

Analysts’

Estimates

CORN
Yield 178.5 178.3 181.8 175.4-181.0
Production 14.900 14.898 15.278 14.743-15.095
Harvested area 83.5 83.5 84.0 82.7-84.2
SOYBEANS
Yield 51.9 51.8 53.3 50.8-52.9
Production 4.313 4.295 4.425 4.217-4.391
Harvested area 83.0 82.9 83.0 82.5-83.0

 

USDA 2019-20 U.S. grain and soybean ending stocks

USDA Sep.

2019-20

end-stocks

estimates

Average of

analysts’

estimates

USDA Aug.

2019-20

end-stocks

estimates

Range of

analysts’

estimates

 
Corn 2.253 2.234 2.228 2.138-2.326
Soybeans 0.575 0.600 0.615 0.574-0.620

 

USDA 2020-21 U.S. grain and soybean ending stocks

USDA Sep.

2020-21

end-stocks

estimates

Average of

analysts’

estimates

USDA Aug.

2020-21

end-stocks

Range of

analysts’

estimates

estimates  
Wheat 0.925 0.924 0.925 0.900-0.978
Corn 2.503 2.451 2.756 2.177-2.589
Soybeans 0.460 0.465 0.610 0.379-0.551

 

Soybean Sudden Death Syndrome

Sudden Death Syndrome in Soybeans

Jill Ball & Kris Van Raay

Soybean harvest is upon us, and with that, inevitably is the seed ordering season as well.  In our crop scouting, we have been noticing a fair amount of disease damage in our customer’s fields, and trying to prevent this in the future is a very important consideration prior to choosing your seed this fall.  One of the more prevelant diseases we have seen is the appearance of Sudden Death Syndrome (SDS).  With SDS, there are several factors to consider when making your soybean management decisions. First, let’s try to understand the fungus, and how you get an infection.

For more – please read the attached:

SDS Sept 2 2020