January 10th 2013 USDA Crop Report Summary
Here is Chuck’s review of the latest USDA Crop Report, summarizing their final yield for the 2013 US Crop.
This was a bullish report for corn. Production was estimated lower at 13.925 Billion bushels, down from the December estimate of 13.989 Billion. The USDA arrived at this estimate by reducing the average yield to 158.8 bpa (160.4 in December) despite harvested acreage being 87.7 million acres (up from 87.2 million acres in December).
This estimate lowered the ending stocks to 1.631 Billion bushels, a significant drop from the 1.792 in December and below all analysts expectations (shows you what they know!).
As a result we saw the first major increases in corn price (20c move) for some time on Friday.
Before we go celebrating – the sober note is the fact that ending stocks are still double what they were a year ago…
Of real interest to me – where did the 96 million acres go that were supposedly planted? Somehow we are missing over 10 million acres of corn…
- In the May 10th Crop Progress report 97.2 Million acres planted.
- In the July 11th Crop Progress report USDA estimated 89.1 million acres of the 97.4 million acres planted
- September report showed harvested acreage dropping to 87.3 million acres.
- Nov 8th Crop Progress report – planted acreage dropped by 2 million acres but harvested acreage unchanged at 87.3 million acreages.
The answer appears to be in feed usage with over 7 million acres of silage corn.
This was a bearish report for soybeans. All numbers pointed to increased production – 3.289 Billion vs. 3.258 in the previous report. Average yield was increased to 43.3 bpa from 43 AND harvested acreage increased to 75.9 million acres from 75.69 million in December.
This news, coupled with reports of good crops in South America pushed soybean prices lower on Friday.
Soybean ending stocks were unchanged from the December report.