The USDA report had a few surprised for the traders. Corn yield was lowered further than analysts thought, as was soybean yield. (168.4, a full bushel drop in corn yield, and a .3 bu drop in soybean yield). That said, ending stocks were not lowered as thought for corn so while the impact was positive it was muted.
Soybean ending stocks were lowered to below the average traders guess. This combined with the yield reduction helped to send soybeans positive.
Markets closed up 5 for corn and 13 for soybeans.
US Grain Stocks, Crop Production and Supply/Demand reports are coming out a noon eastern today.
Here are some estimates (thanks to ADMIS and Mid-co)
2015 US Crop Production Estimate: 2015 USDA was 13,654M bu, trade range is 13,525 to 13,770
2015 US Soybean Production Estimate: 2015 USDA was 3,981M bu, trade range is 3,981 to 4,043
So in summary the traders are thinking the corn crop is going to shrink and the soybean crop is going to grow based on prior estimates. We shall see.
These numbers affect ending stocks – traders are pretty confident we will see a drop in corn ending stocks, but interestingly enough – despite the prediction of higher soybean production, they are not as confident that soybean ending stocks will rise – indicating to me strong demand.