2020 Corn Plot Results

Decided to take the corn plot off yesterday.  It was planted on May 27th.  For fertility, we used SmartN upfront plus 250lbs of corn starter.

All of the varieties were standing perfectly.  It was interesting to see the slight changes in final population.

In general terms, the flagship Pride and Dekalb varieties had final stands of 34-35,000, which is basically what we dropped.

2 of the NK varieties, along with the experimental Pride had noticeably lower final population (still 32,000+) but the fact that I could see it made me wonder why that would occur.  Dekalb 52-84 also had lower population, but that was something I expected.  Althougth it is has been an excellent performer for other areas, we have never had good luck with that variety in the area immediately around Haggerty.

That being said, the lower populations did not affect the yield as much as I would have thought.

The frost event in September has definitely taken the shine off the test weight, although I was pleasantly surprised that most were grade 3, and as such I think they will finish at 2 once dried.

Raccoons ate their share of several varieties.  Of interest, similar to what we have found in the past, they really liked NK 9738 (along with the other NK varieties).  Maybe this is why NK corn is liked by livestock producers?  Makes you wonder why one would be tastier to the wildlife than others.

They also really liked Pride experimental XP20101G5 as well.

Thanks to Ryan Snobelen from Pride Seeds for assisting and to Dekalb for the weigh wagon.

127196 Harvest Report

USDA Ending Stocks Update, October 9th, 2020

The USDA updated their supply and demand estimates today. All good news but no major surprises to the markets.

Corn ending stocks were adjusted, lowered from 2.503 billion bushels to 2.167 billion bushels. The primary factor driving for this was a rather massive reduction in beginning stocks from two weeks ago.  While bullish, the markets already had a premium built into the price to reflect this news.  Average yield and harvested acres also saw slight reductions.

The general consensus is that corn has been carried by momentum in beans and wheat over the past few weeks. Moving forward, we will likely need some fresh good news to maintain the upward trend.

Bean ending stocks were dropped from 460 million bushels to 290 million bushels. Similar to corn, the primary factor behind this was the reduction in beginning stocks. Aside from this, the USDA increased their export estimate by 75 million bushels.  Average yield was unchanged at 51.9, and harvested acres saw only a slight reduction from 83 million to 82.3 million.

The recent bean rally has been fueled by a few factors. A lack of rain in South America has delayed their planting season up to this point. If their bean crop is reduced enough, this could trigger China to start buying US crop again.  Related to this, there is additional speculation that China will start another string of buying as they exit their weeklong holiday. A few sales to China this week seem to support these rumors.  The current forecasts for Brazil have rain coming to the northern and central regions this coming week.  It’s hard to say how much this will impact the markets, only time will tell.

Wheat ending stocks also saw a reduction from 925 million to 833 million bushels. The primary factor behind this was reduction in beginning stocks, same as beans and corn.

Wheat prices have found support in dry weather in Russia, which has hindered their potential production.

Overall, the markets did a good job in their predictions prior to the report. Corn went into the report 5 cents higher and ended the day 8 cents higher. Beans saw no change, as they went into the report 15 cents above opening and ended 15 cents above opening. Only wheat saw a major shock, as they went from up 7 cents to down 1 cent after the report was released. In the end, the biggest surprise was that there wasn’t any surprise.

See the summary chart, attached:

USDA Oct 9 2020


Field Corn Contest 2020, Haggerty Creek Ltd.

In lieu of the fact that fall fairs have been cancelled this year, we thought that kids should still get the chance to participate in some way with fall harvest contests.

Our kids have always enjoyed entering the “corn contests” at both the Glencoe Fair and Brooke-Alvinston fair.

So – we thought why not run a contest of our own this year.

The rules are simple:  Children under the age of 14, and 1 entry per child per category.

Drop off your entries at Haggerty Creek Ltd before 6pm on October 8th. Call when you get to the office. We will give you a form to complete with a “hidden” name on it, and instructions on where to leave it safely.

If you wish to get your entries back, you may indicate this on the form.

The contest:  Highest number of kernel’s on a single cob, and/or a presentation of 6 cobs of corn.

In each category, the grand prize winner will receive $25.00, the 2nd place $15.00, and $10.00 for 3rd.

Good luck!

HC Field Corn Contest 2020 Corn Contest Entry Form (002)

USDA Quarterly Stocks Report Sept 30 2020

The USDA Quarterly Grain Stocks report was released today at 12:00, and it brought some major surprises to the market.
Stocks were lowered across the board, coming in underneath average trade estimates by a significant margin. Corn stocks were reported at 1.995 billion bushels; 255 million bushels below the average trade estimate of 2.225 billion bushels. Bean stocks were reported at 523 million bushels; 53 million bushels under average trade estimates of 576 million. Wheat stocks came in at 2.159 billion bushels, which was 83 million below average trade estimates of 2.242 billion.
The markets were obviously surprised by these numbers, as we saw massive rallies immediately following the release of the report. At one point we saw a 40 cent increase above today’s opening price for beans. By the end of the day corn closed 14 cents higher, beans closed 30 cents higher, and wheat closed 27 cents higher.

See attached for the summary numbers

Quarterly Grain Stocks Report Sep30 2020

USDA Report Sept 11th, 2020

USDA September 11th, 2020 Recap

 Last week the USDA updated their estimates.

Traders did a good job with their estimates, and as such there weren’t many surprises to the markets.

Corn ending stocks for 20/21 dropped around 250,000 MT. The largest contributing factor to this was storm damage in Iowa, which represented a loss of over 500,000 harvested acres of corn. Yields were also reduced from 181.8 bu/ac to 178.5 bu/ac. Despite such a large drop, this still represents a record high for corn ending stocks.

This falls right in line with what was expected by the market. With few surprises coming from the USDA report, attention has begun to shift towards harvest activity.

Soybeans ending stocks for 20/21 dropped by 150,000 MT. Droughts across Illinois and Iowa hit at a crucial time, damaging their crop and lowering yields. In combination with this, China has been a strong and steady buyer of U.S. beans over the past month. This helps to explain the rallies we have seen in the price of soybeans over the past month.

It is debatable whether current Chinese buying is meant to meet domestic need, or stockpile in case trade relations deteriorate between China and the U.S. While there are reports of floods and typhoons damaging China’s domestic crop, current President Donald Trump has also been explicit in his desire for less trade with China. Both explanations are entirely possible.

Wheat ending stocks have remained unchanged. There seems not to be enough recent news to change things either way.

Most of this information was already priced into the markets. Directly after the report, corn prices stayed flat, while beans saw an additional rally, likely reflecting the difference between trader’s estimate and USDA estimate of ending stocks.

A summary of the numbers is below:

USDA 2020-21 U.S. corn and soybean production




Average of






Range of



Yield 178.5 178.3 181.8 175.4-181.0
Production 14.900 14.898 15.278 14.743-15.095
Harvested area 83.5 83.5 84.0 82.7-84.2
Yield 51.9 51.8 53.3 50.8-52.9
Production 4.313 4.295 4.425 4.217-4.391
Harvested area 83.0 82.9 83.0 82.5-83.0


USDA 2019-20 U.S. grain and soybean ending stocks





Average of







Range of



Corn 2.253 2.234 2.228 2.138-2.326
Soybeans 0.575 0.600 0.615 0.574-0.620


USDA 2020-21 U.S. grain and soybean ending stocks





Average of






Range of



Wheat 0.925 0.924 0.925 0.900-0.978
Corn 2.503 2.451 2.756 2.177-2.589
Soybeans 0.460 0.465 0.610 0.379-0.551


Soybean Sudden Death Syndrome

Sudden Death Syndrome in Soybeans

Jill Ball & Kris Van Raay

Soybean harvest is upon us, and with that, inevitably is the seed ordering season as well.  In our crop scouting, we have been noticing a fair amount of disease damage in our customer’s fields, and trying to prevent this in the future is a very important consideration prior to choosing your seed this fall.  One of the more prevelant diseases we have seen is the appearance of Sudden Death Syndrome (SDS).  With SDS, there are several factors to consider when making your soybean management decisions. First, let’s try to understand the fungus, and how you get an infection.

For more – please read the attached:

SDS Sept 2 2020

2020 Great Lakes Grain Crop Tour Results

Jill, Ryan, Al and Kris were busy the last couple of weeks checking yields on some of our customers farms (in between rains) as part of the 2020 GLG crop tour.  This is the 10th year that GLG has organized the event.

The growing season immediately surrounding Haggerty has been excellent, for the most part.  To the south, North of Bothwell there was a period of drought which has impacted crop yields to some degree.

In general soybeans look good but until the leaves come off we really won’t know for sure.  We are expecting higher soybean yields than 2019.

The corn crop, for the most part, should be above average.  Western Bean Cutworm feeding is high on the untreated fields.  With the damp weather we are having we will be watching for any moulds developing.

Attached is the Great Lakes Grain Tour press release and summary report.

2020 GLG Crop Tour Results Summary

2020 GLG Crop Tour Results – Commentary


Haggerty Creek Service Hours and Instructions

In light of the recent government announcements surrounding COVID-19, we at Haggerty Creek Ltd. feel that we also must take some action to do our part towards an orderly spring.

While we do not take any actions lightly, we feel that we would rather been seen doing our part to not be part of the problem – to prevent illness and ensure smooth spring deliveries of the products our customers need.  This will benefit both you, our customers, and our staff.

Attached is our position from this point forward.  We want to reiterate that we have good supply of all the products our customers will require this spring and that there is no reason to be concerned.

Haggerty 2020 COVID safety letter

USDA February 11th, 2020

Yesterday the USDA updated it’s crop report with ending stocks.

There were little surprises to the market.

From Mid-Co, here is a summary:

Corn Ending Stocks were 1.892 MMT which are unchanged from January but higher than the trade estimates.

I think for our marketing – we know that the US has had harvest challenges with some crop unharvested, and maybe questionable quality.  However based on these inventory levels, it doesn’t matter.  Spring is upon us and barring some unseen weather event the focus is going to be on planting, in my opinion.

For Ontario – the corn crop was overall decent but not great.  On top of that, there are large areas where the discussion was grade 4 or under test weight. The good areas were only just grade 2.  That means higher corn usage, more fines, and generally farmers will discover they have less in inventory here in Ontario than they thought.

This should generate some support to the basis but noone can predict it.

Soybean ending stocks were 0.425 MMT vs 0.475 MMT in January.  This number is also lower than the trade estimates.  While this should be positive news for soybeans, the world soybean carryover increased by a large 2 MMT, which puts a damper on things.

The continuing issues with China (Swine Flu, Coronavirus etc) is weakening soybean demand and until this changes I don’t expect much out of the soybean market.

That being said, everywhere I read, the US farmer (and to some degree the Ontario Farmer) is going to plant corn on every flat surface from here to California.  Soybeans are going to have to do something to maintain acreage, as we are seeing a market premium for corn.  For example the current spread is 2.3x the price of corn which I feel is too low.

Wheat ending stocks are more positive, with 0.94MMT vs. 0.965 in January, again surpassing trade estimates.  Also, world stocks are also flat.

The numbers are promising for wheat if March doesn’t kill it off first.

GLG We Know Markets Event

Bringing You What’s Next Tour 2020

Great Lakes Grain, along with your Haggerty Creek, AGRIS and FS PARTNERS teams, would like to cordially invite you to our Winter Information Meetings featuring Jeff Sherman, Commodity Risk Consultant of MIDCO Commodities from Des Moines, Iowa.
Many people are involved in your farm decision making process. Please feel free to bring your decision makers and influencers to listen to Jeff Sherman, who has been trading cash grain and futures for over 30 years. This is his 11th annual trip to Ontario, providing his entertaining perspective on the North American and world grain markets.

See the attached flyer for locations.

GLG We Know Markets Invite 2020