June USDA World Crop Report

The USDA report today as seen as bearish, especially with wheat.    Corn yield estimated at 165.3 bushels per acre which is going to be  a large crop.

Soybean yield pegged at 45.2 (above analyst predictions).

Some supportive numbers are corn stockpiles at 1146 million bushels which is below the average of the trade estimates.  That said both wheat and soybean stockpiles are basically at or above analysts expectations.

As you know – CME pricing is based on expectations so we saw corn lose another 3-4 cents, beans 8-12 (new -old) and wheat lost 12 for the 2014 harvest.

This report is likely going to aid the downward slide we are seeing in commodity prices.

Major news to consider upcoming will be the US weather outlook and if there is going to be any kind of crop weather concerns that will shrink the US crop.

On the local market front – the prospects of a large US corn crop are not favourable to the Ontario basis.  Ontario has planted a corn crop roughly 10% smaller than 2013.  At issue is the continuing abundance of old crop corn in the bins in Ontario which is going to cause the suppliers to be using part of the this crop into harvest of 2014.  This is likely to level out possible basis gains caused by a smaller corn area in Ontario.